Spatio-temporal analysis of African Swine Fever in Ukraine over 2020–2024

  • V. V. Ukhovskyi State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • L. Y. Korniienko State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • M. V. Bezymennyi Institute of Veterinary Medicine of the NAAS of Ukraine
  • O. V. Pishchanskyi State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • O. V. Matviienko State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • A. V. Pyskun State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • G. B. Aliekseieva State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • M. I. Sushko State Scientific and Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise
  • M. L. Radzykhovskyi National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine
  • O. B. Ryevnivtsev National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15421/0225163
Keywords: epizootic, African Swine Fever, mapping, GIS.

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and deadly viral disease of pigs, causing devastating losses to swine production globally. Since its first detection in Ukraine in 2012, ASF has remained a critical challenge for the national pig industry, threatening both food security and economic stability. The ongoing spread of ASF in Ukraine is exacerbated by insufficient biosecurity, illegal pork circulation, and uncontrolled backyard slaughter, particularly under wartime conditions. This study provides a retrospective spatio-temporal analysis of ASF outbreaks across Ukraine during 2020–2024. Official data from regional laboratories of the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection were collected and analyzed. Descriptive statistics, choropleth mapping, kernel density estimation, and standard deviational ellipses were a p plied using QGIS 3.28 to assess the dynamics, geographical distribution, and seasonal trends of confirmed ASF cases in domestic pigs and wild boars. A total of 185 outbreaks were recorded over the five-year period: 151 in domestic pigs and 34 in wild boars. The highest number of outbreaks occurred in 2024 (85), which is 9.4 times higher than in 2022 (9). Two se a sonal peaks were identified: a major one in July–August and a smaller one in November. These trends suggest that the warm-season peak is likely linked to the distribution of infected pork products, while the colder months favor virus survival in the environment. Central Ukraine (particularly Kyiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad regions), Chernihiv ( Northern Ukraine) and Mykolaiv (south) regions showed the highest density of outbreaks and the largest number of slaughtered pigs, with over 98 , 128 head slaughtered due to ASF during the study period. The analysis confirms that ASF incidence is geographically clustered and persistent in the central part of Ukraine. The disease dynamics trends in domestic pigs closely mirror the ove r all trend observed in both domestic pigs and wild boars. The results highlight the importance of improving surveillance systems, enforcing backyard farm controls, and implementing risk-based biosecurity interventions. Spatial analysis tools proved highly effective for identifying high-risk zones and guiding veterinary decision-making.

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Published
2025-09-18
How to Cite
Ukhovskyi, V. V., Korniienko, L. Y., Bezymennyi, M. V., Pishchanskyi, O. V., Matviienko, O. V., Pyskun, A. V., Aliekseieva, G. B., Sushko, M. I., Radzykhovskyi, M. L., & Ryevnivtsev, O. B. (2025). Spatio-temporal analysis of African Swine Fever in Ukraine over 2020–2024. Regulatory Mechanisms in Biosystems, 16(4), e25163. https://doi.org/10.15421/0225163
Issue
Vol 16 No 4 (2025): Regulatory Mechanisms in Biosystems
Section
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